On January 26, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko secured victory in the presidential elections for the seventh time. This time, the "father" faced no issues with protests from dissatisfied citizens, nor did he have to contend with rivals who had previously dampened his spirits with their criticisms. The streets of Belarusian cities were eerily silent in the evening, devoid of any applause. The contrast between August 2020 and January 2025 was particularly striking and telling.
The formal confirmation of the authoritarian rule of the "potato Führer" via the election process went smoothly. However, the Central Election Commission did not dare to attribute more votes to Lukashenko than to his ally Putin. The Belarusian leader received 86.82% of the votes, while the Kremlin chief garnered 87.28% last year.
The 2025 presidential elections in Belarus took place in a somewhat strange and oppressive atmosphere. There were no signs of even a semblance of political competition. Minimal campaigning and a complete absence of criticism directed at the current authorities. Registered presidential candidates expressed their support for Lukashenko. The opposition was either in exile or imprisoned. Citizens were fearful and submissive. The predictability of the Belarusian dictator's victory left no room for doubt this time. The Belarusian government had achieved significant success in turning the election campaign into a mere formality. The main intrigue revolved solely around how many votes the Central Election Commission would allocate to Lukashenko this time.
Perhaps the most attention during the Belarusian presidential election process was drawn by Alexander Lukashenko's dog. The white Spitz entered the polling station where his owner was voting, and, in a canine manner, marked the territory, symbolically demonstrating what he thought of the entire affair. Lukashenko himself, when speaking with journalists, claimed that he was unconcerned about the opinions of Western politicians regarding the elections, nor whether they would recognize him as the legitimate head of state. "Whether you in the EU recognize these elections or not is a matter of taste. Believe me, I swear, I absolutely don't care whether you recognize our elections or not. What matters to me is that Belarusians recognize these elections, and that they ended as peacefully as they began. That is the main thing," said Alexander Lukashenko.
The Belarusian dictator, who has been in power since 1994, also rightly noted that nothing would change if someone did not recognize the election results. And in this case, he is correct. Europe may call Lukashenko illegitimate and consider the 2025 elections a sham. But this does not change reality. The reality is that Lukashenko retains full power. And this fact will have to be reckoned with one way or another.
Among the most ardent optimists, there lingered a ghostly hope that Belarusians would take to the streets in protest as they did five years ago. But this time, no protests occurred. The streets of Minsk and other cities remained empty after the polling stations closed. Citizens did not gather for spontaneous rallies. The silence of the squares was unbroken even by solitary applause. No one went to the Central Election Commission building. The regime's triumph was complete and total this time.
Lukashenko learned lessons from the mass protests of 2020, which he managed to suppress with great effort. Many participants were arrested and imprisoned. Some died under mysterious circumstances. The main opposition leaders of 2020 were forced to flee abroad. The number of political prisoners exceeds 1,200. Belarus's law enforcement system is entirely subservient to the regime and closely monitors any signs of unwanted political activity.
Former participants of demonstrations who still remain in Belarus are fearful and disoriented. The Belarusian opposition in exile, just days before January 26, urged their compatriots through the voice of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya not to take to the streets this time.
“We call on Belarusians to reject this deception, and the international community to reject the results. But I want to tell Belarusians: you must preserve yourselves until a real opportunity arises. Because people live in constant fear, and the regime is only intensifying its repressions,” said the Belarusian opposition leader. However, even if Tsikhanouskaya had called on Belarusians to take to the streets en masse, it is unlikely that such a request would have resonated. Belarusian society is not only politically disoriented. It is also scared by the global situation and the presence of such an unpredictable neighbor as Russia. The Russian invasion of Ukraine demonstrated how fragile peace and security are in this part of the European continent. Under such circumstances, many Belarusians genuinely preferred to vote for the familiar, albeit largely disliked, Lukashenko rather than plunge into a maelstrom of political turbulence with uncertain outcomes.
To further safeguard against any issues, the authorities decided not to open polling stations abroad. Instead, Belarusian expatriates were offered the chance to return home to vote. According to various estimates, between 700,000 and over 1 million people left Belarus after the 2020 protests. The vast majority of them hold critical views of Lukashenko's regime. Thus, the "potato duce" ensured that the voices of these people would be completely ignored.
Of course, to maintain a facade of legitimacy, the authorities allowed a few more presidential candidates to participate in the process. But this time, all of them were completely controlled and compliant. They seemed to do everything possible not to garner too many votes, so as not to challenge the "father." The leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, Oleg Haydukevich, reportedly received 2.02% of the votes. Former parliament member and entrepreneur Anna Kanopatskaya received 1.86%, first secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Belarus, Sergey Siranok, gained 3.21%, and head of the Republican Party of Labor and Justice, Alexander Khizhnak, garnered 1.74%. Another 3.60% of voters opted for "none of the above."
The only conditionally independent figure in this electoral farce could be considered Anna Kanopatskaya. This woman participated in the 2020 election campaign but received only 1.68%. However, the regime's agreement to register her as a presidential candidate reflects the regime's confidence, not its democratic nature. It shows confidence that there would be no issues with Kanopatskaya, which indeed turned out to be the case. The true opposition figures were simply refused registration, and conditions were created to deter them from engaging in a genuine electoral campaign.
No revolution occurred in Belarus. It is evident that Lukashenko's regime firmly clings to power and has no intention of relinquishing it. But this does not mean that the "potato duce" is eternal. The dictatorship in Belarus is sustained by a combination of internal and external factors. The regime has so thoroughly cleansed the political landscape that in the event of unpredictable occurrences, it could face internal collapse and fall apart. It is no coincidence that Lukashenko lamented that he was tired of ruling the country for 30 years and had no worthy successor. The dismantling of the dictatorship in Belarus is only a matter of time. But even more crucial is what will happen to this country after the end of Lukashenko's autocratic era. Ukraine must closely monitor events in the neighboring country. For there is something even worse than Belarusian authoritarianism – Russian occupation.