ISW analysts speculate on how Russian forces might leverage their advancement in Toretsk.

The Russian forces are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Konstantinovka in the Donetsk region. This threat will not materialize unless the Russian military command reinforces the existing troop grouping in this area with forces from other frontline regions. This is reported by UNN, citing a report from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Details

The report notes that according to geolocation images released on January 6, Russian troops have advanced along Tsvetochnaya Street and reached the northwestern administrative border of Toretsk.

However, based on geolocation maps analyzed by ISW, as of January 7, Russian forces occupy approximately 71% of the territory of the settlement.

ISW suggests that Russian troops likely intend to use their successes in the northwest of Toretsk to advance westward from Toretsk and Shcherbinovka along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Konstantinovka route towards the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in Konstantinovka.

Analysts believe that the invaders may aim to establish a foothold in the northwest of Toretsk and in the center of Shcherbinovka (to the west of Toretsk) to advance along the T-05-16 route towards Konstantinovka through Nelipovka, Pleshcheyevka, Ivanopole, and the fields surrounding these settlements, attempting to create a threat to the southern edge of the Ukrainian fortification belt from Konstantinovka to Druzhkovka to Kramatorsk, which is the basis of the defense of the Donetsk region.

Russian forces may also try to use further advances northwest of Toretsk and south of Chasiv Yar towards Bely Gory and Aleksandro-Shultino to eliminate the Ukrainian "pocket" in this area and align the front line to the west and southwest of Konstantinovka.

Additionally, Russian troops may attempt to advance west and northwest of New York and Leonidovka towards the N-20 Donetsk-Konstantinovka and N-32 Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highways to push Konstantinovka from the south and create a more stable southern flank for an offensive on Konstantinovka.

Experts note that Russian forces are likely to achieve faster progress in the fields and small settlements north and west of Toretsk than they have in their slow advance towards the city of Toretsk.

Units of the Russian army in this area may attempt to replicate short, tactically significant mechanized attacks similar to those conducted in the Kurakhovo and Ugledar directions in the fall of 2024, if they have sufficient reserves of armored vehicles for this sector.

According to ISW, the Russian advance east of Pokrovsk and west of Toretsk may be part of ongoing efforts aimed at gaining advantages that allow for the capture of any territory, regardless of its relative insignificance.

At the same time, specialists believe that Russian forces are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Konstantinovka unless the Russian military command reinforces the existing troop grouping in this area with forces from other frontline regions.

"Currently, ISW is not prepared to provide a forecast regarding how the Russians will allocate their efforts near Toretsk."

Key findings from ISW as of January 7:

Russian forces have advanced in Toretsk after several weeks of more rapid offensive operations and gaining new positions in the area.

The occupiers likely intend to use their successes in Toretsk to advance west from Toretsk and Shcherbinovka along the T-05-16 Toretsk-Konstantinovka route towards the southernmost point of the Ukrainian fortification belt in Konstantinovka.

RF troops may attempt to exploit tactical advantages in Toretsk and its vicinity, as well as east of Pokrovsk, to eliminate Ukrainian fortifications southwest of Toretsk.

They are likely to try to break out of the urban encirclement of Toretsk and advance into more open rural areas, similar to those where Russian forces have achieved significant successes in other parts of the front in recent months.

Russian troops are unlikely to pose a significant threat to Konstantinovka unless the Russian military command reinforces the existing troop grouping in this area with forces from other areas of the front.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that on January 7, Ukrainian forces struck the command post of the Russian 810th Marine Brigade in Bely, Kursk region of the RF.

Ukrainian troops have recently advanced in the Kursk region, while Russian forces have made advances near Kupiansk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and in the Kursk region.

The Kremlin continues to promote the "Time of Heroes" program, which aims to appoint veterans of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine to positions in local, regional, and federal authorities.

Reminder

The invaders continue offensive actions in eastern Ukraine, occupying several settlements. Among them are Lozovaya, Ivanovka, and Shevchenko. Additionally, fighting continues in Toretsk, where the enemy has advanced, but the line of contact remains under clarification.